Dad-Math my Bubble Math
Jason Fried gives an excellent rebuttal to the Business Week article proclaiming Digg to be super hugely huge. In my piece a few days ago about what makes community, I discussed how web sites can quickly get a lot of users and still not be a community. Jason shows that you can be a really popular site and still not be a viable business.
It's safe to say that people will drink heavily from a free tap. The freer it is, the less your quality your beer needs to be.
As with Jason, I'm not dissing Digg - I've been pleasantly surprised at how Kevin et al have taken it from a shaky prototype to the new version which is really a gorgeous site. But I am noting that articles like the Business Week one are there to sell soap. There are a lot of web sites out there that sell soap. The service is just good enough to have critical mass use it for free - but not to turn revenue.
So, if Digg is still working its way into a viable revenue model - and it's a top 50 web site - what does that mean for everyone else?
I'll also echo Jason's noting of this passage from the Business Week article:
“The barriers to entry are now so low that all it takes is a laptop and
a $50-a-month Internet hookup to make a kid the next mogul”
This is somewhat true, just like any kid can grow up to be President. But that is not all it takes. Frankly, with free Wifi in coffee shops and free computers at libraries, you could conceivably get away with no investment at all.
Try it.
Digg has had to go out and get 2.5 million dollars of investment money - after becoming a top 50 web site. After.
Any kid can grow up to be President - but having a $50 Million dollar "war chest" is also required. So, any kid with access to $50 Million. Likewise, any kid with a laptop can be the next Web 2.0 Zillionaire. But that kid might need a little extra stashed away somewhere.
Good post, Mr. Fried.
(And here's an astronaut falling down and saying "Dad Gum It".)
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